With the return of the rains, the wheat gives revenge to the field after the losses by drought in soybeans and corn.
“If we continue with this rhythm of water accumulation in soils, we could achieve a new increase in the area sown for the campaign that begins these days,” David Hughes, president of Argentrigo, told Clarín.
The manager of the association that brings together the cereal production chain highlighted the other factor that plays in favor. “The market prices are positive, and can act as a good incentive for producers at the time of decision making,” he said. And he recommended “using futures markets to secure price.”
In this sense, the consultant of granary markets, Hernán Fernández Martínez, warned that “having risen US $ 76.50 / tn, from US $ 165 / tn to US $ 241.50 / tn, or 46% in almost 4 months, 140% annualized in dollars-, we should start capturing these prices very strongly “.
A fact that does not go unnoticed is that although wheat rises all over the world, due to a fall in global stocks, the Argentine is trading better than the United States. Kansas wheat (winter hard) in Chicago is trading at $ 184 / t in the July position.
This situation, sustained by the strong recovery of this grain in foreign markets, and locally, aroused rumors about the importation of North American wheat by Argentine mills.
But market analyst Pablo Adreani dismissed that possibility, for now, based on a more accurate analysis. “We should not look at Chicago that much, but at the price of winter red hard wheat (high protein), which is exported from the ports of the Gulf of Mexico. If we compare the latter, which is quoted at US $ 243 / tn for shipment in July, we are far from importing United States wheat, since we must add ocean freight, a minimum of US $ 30 / tn, with which wheat US put in Argentina would be worth US $ 273 / ton, still far from the July wheat price that is trading at US $ 247 / tonne in the Buenos Aires Terrestrial Market (MATBA).
In summary, “the Argentine wheat should raise 30 dollars more so that it agrees to import it”, according to Adreani.